TRANSITIONS TO A POSTCARBON SOCIETY
IRS Sustainability Studies

Object and Scope

Introduction

The basic concept of the project Transitions towards a post-carbon society: redistributive impacts and everyday life in a context of non-fossil energies and climate change is that the transition to a 'post-carbon' society cannot be achieved by an increase in energy efficiency alone or by changing government policies, but also requires far-reaching transformation in lifestyles, consumption patterns, and forms of urbanization, along with other features of social organization. Consequently the project focuses on the so-called demand-side of the pathways to European 'post-carbon' societies by emphasizing their socio-cultural dimensions. Three scientific approaches are then combined under the overall perspective of a "culture of sufficiency":

  • social-anthropological history of technical developments,
  • social-ecological approaches to everyday life and sustainable consumption patterns,
  • social change and social movement research concerning creative (innovative) initiatives and communities.

In addition, two other regulatory ideas are incorporated in the project. Firstly, that the reduction in fossil fuels consumption will eventually have redistributive impacts, whose social scope can be assessed by means of an analysis of the relationship between ecological footprints and carbon footprints, and social stratification. Secondly, that the transformation pathways are indubitably influenced by the individual history and culture of each society, and that means that idiosyncrasies and peculiarities should be detected and taken into account. For this reason, the above-mentioned approaches will be combined using methods of intercultural comparison and using foresight methods in order to obtain distinct 'visions of the future' of a 'post-carbon' society in diverse local contexts -where cultural crystallization points can be identified- in Spain and France, with a main focus on the metropolitan areas of Paris, Barcelona and Valencia.

The fundamental objective of the project is to facilitate behavioural change and support public policies about climate change and de-carbonization by providing a new analytical framework concerning phenomena which could aid or support the aforementioned transition within civil society: social and intellectual movements, citizens' initiatives, changes in lifestyles, perceptions and attitudes of the general public or of important sectors of the same. This means generating information along three axes: a) analysis, through case studies, of localized phenomena that are active catalysers, demonstrations of civil society's capacity to take the initiative and to formulate propositions; b) an exploration of the values, attitudes and behaviours of the population as a whole which can be connected with the aforementioned elements of change, empowering or disseminating their effects; c) taking into consideration cultural characteristics: our purpose is to elaborate a specific discourse about the transition towards a post-carbon society as determined by the conditions found in different societies (and, as a collateral aim, to indirectly test the value of the hypothesis according to which the "Mediterranean way of life" could become a socio-economic factor that would make sense in a post-carbon society).

To meet these objectives several social research techniques will be used, both quantitative (surveys, secondary sources, and other existing statistical data analysis) and qualitative (in-depth interviews, sociological involvement, documentary analysis, case studies, foresight methods). In addition to social empirical research, methods of historical retrospect and hermeneutic-philosophical interpretation will be used in order to highlight the cultural dimensions of the transition processes.

Concept: the points at issue

The idea that the transition to a 'post-carbon' society becomes unavoidable has arisen. Above all, it is seen as a consequence of the growing scientific evidence concerning anthropogenic climate change (the artificial intensification of the greenhouse effect) as well as the political recognition that the economic and social costs, if said change is not controlled in time, could become unbearable. This idea can also be linked to other evidence indicating that the physical scale of humanity has already surpassed the levels that the planet can sustain. However, the fundamental motive is the threat of global warming and thus the need to reduce the use of fossil fuels (carbon, oil, and gas). The production and supply of fossil fuels is also entering a phase of scarcity and rigidity which will entail finding alternatives that in themselves can be reasons for profound changes. It is not surprising, then, that much attention is being given to technological alternatives, in both the development of non-fossil energy sources and a more efficient use of energy as a whole in production and consumption activities. It is also logical that the emphasis is given to governmental measures and decisions (top-down) which could be necessary in this context, in the political-economic environment such as fiscal measures, incentives, etc., as well as in that of regulations. However, even though at first glance the idea of a technological solution and policy regulation for environmental problems appears to be attractive, it is clearly insufficient. The introduction of new technologies is not independent of the social context in which they are spread. Government measures in democratic societies are only viable if they have the comprehension and support of a more or less active population. For this reason, a 'post-carbon' society cannot simply be defined through its technologies and policies, but also by specific forms of organization and social action, of lifestyles and value systems. The existing information concerning the latest dimension of the 'post-carbon' society (specifically socio-cultural) is much smaller than those concerning the other two dimensions. Our project aims to contribute to partially fill this lacuna.

In light of this objective, we consider the following aspects:

  • The connection between present-day options and the historical social-anthropology of technology in the industrial age. This could certainly be a primary factor and merits review. Sensitizing a population to the energy problem is not simply a question of making them pay the costs but also of their understanding of what energy means on a daily basis. For example, it has been said: "In the past traces of soot in the living room presented clearly evidence of the reality of consumption". This now needs to be presented in an alternative manner. This is happening already: wind turbines are updating windmills, electric cars and trams are reminders of the 1890s as well as photovoltaic energy, discovered in 1830. These engineering feats are evidence of the origins and power of society's use of energy. This representation of the past in terms of non-nuclear or fossil energies embodies a feasible form on a social, political and economic level.
  • The way in which people consume and how this is shaped by attitudes, routines and the organization of everyday life. Thus, consumers are seen with respect to three dimensions of the consumers' role: in the first place as actors who shape and 'produce' everyday life, in the second place as market participants and finally as citizens who shape civil society. From this theoretical background, we will also focus on long-term changes in consumer behaviour en route to a 'post-carbon' society, stressing the importance of an everyday life perspective and the evolution of attitudes and lifestyle tendencies.
  • Practical, concrete, already existing experiences oriented towards a low-carbon way of life. These are observed in citizens' initiatives and intellectual or social movements oriented towards relocalization or reduction, in eco-efficient urban design, in experiments with alternative energies, etc. The seeds for the future may be found and interpreted in real processes which at present are minority matters; but they can hold, in nuce, traits which can be generalized. The underlying idea is that such initiatives can be considered to be so-called real-word experiments for social evolution towards a 'post-carbon' society. The concept of real-world experiments is a framework for understanding environmental design projects in real-life conditions; in this way society itself is the laboratory for innovative practices.
  • Visions of the social change "beyond carbon", as frameworks of reference that can inspire the design of settings and feasible futures. The attempt to carry out a prospective examination of a 'post-carbon' society cannot rest only on a projection in the future, with modulations of intensity which are more or less notable, of experiences in the recent past. This is something which is quite obvious, given that a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels means a fundamental change in the present day technological matrix and thus, presumably, also in the forms of social life. Consequently, the possible futures will need to be imagined for the most part. And as such are a task for philosophy and the humanitities: a task for cultural reconstruction as much as an issue for technological innovation and change.

A philosophical and humanistic prism is a convenient means to provide more of a general shape to the concept of this project. In the last instance, a 'post-carbon' society must be a society which is impregnated with a culture of sufficiency. As a regulatory, cultural principle, sufficiency opposes excess and greed. It reminds us that extreme affluence, as far as it undermines its natural and social grounds, menaces the continuity of civilization. It also points to the incompatibility of happiness and insatiable desires (as stated by the ancient Greek philosopher Epicurus: natural wealth has limits and it is easy to reach; that of the superfluous opinion is doomed to infinity). On the other hand, sufficiency is more than mere subsistence. It reminds us that civilized life is characterized by a certain degree of refinement, implying consumption above the strict survival level. In the end, the culture of sufficiency obeys the principle that enough is better.

From the perspective of these general criteria, the idea of this project is to detect in the present the practical catalysers and the opportunities in widespread social contexts of a culture of sufficiency, in order to connect them to the possibilities of a future 'post-carbon' society. Frequently, when the negative consequences that are derived from the excessive use of fossil fuels are pointed out, the necessary answers are pointed out too, and the obstacles against these answers are stressed. The fact that the issue is frequently addressed from the "obstacles-to-change" approach implies, in any case, that the change is sensed as something with visible signs however incipient and uncertain these might be (otherwise, this approach would make no sense). It also implies fostering some reference of meanings, so that such signs could be interpreted and understood. This dual operation will be clearer if a conjecture is specified about the particular or distinctive features of the culture the change points to, at least with regard to the broadest traits or guiding principles. The answer to such a question could be based on the study of relevant documents, the analysis of significant texts used as a reference by the people involved in social "post-carbon experiments" or resulting from it. But this is not enough. The general traits or guiding principles of the culture of sufficiency cannot be laid down simply by describing social practices positively, even though the observation of groups and movements does provide many elements for judgement. We also need to take into account idealistic expressions whose realization in practice is, if anything, partial.

On the other hand, this dialectic between emergent, detectable change in the present and the normative principles of the culture of sufficiency of the future should be rooted in concrete social contexts that impose boundaries, partiality or particularity. If a turnabout towards more sustainability does ever occur in human societies, then not only one sufficiency culture will flourish but several or many. This pluralist postulate stems from the belief that the cultural matrix in each society, its tradition and continuous re-elaborations must be meaningful when formulating sustainability-targeted behaviour rules. Exchanges at this level might well be interesting and enriching, but really the idea is not to start looking for the most 'natural' myths and philosophies in the global philosophy supermarket in order to produce a universal model. Evolution in a society always starts out from the heritage developed throughout its history, and the flow of experiences, knowledge, and feelings that actually made it throughout time. Therefore, views of a sustainable 'post-carbon' society must be filtered through cultural diversity before acquiring minimum social consistency. The last important point in the conception of the present project is the aim to contribute to the construction of a vision of a 'post-carbon' society congruent with the culture and the ways of life of Mediterranean societies. This is not solely a question of examining carefully the history of ideas. It is true, for example, that references of interest could be found in the cynic philosophers, such as Diogenes, in Epicurus' preference for desires which are natural but not necessary, or in the rereading of some of the branches of Catholicism, for instance, Francis of Assisi. But, in general terms, resorting to the past can only offer suggestive and inspiring ideas, but no valid models for solving new problems. References to the cultural tradition cannot substitute for research into the present-day cultural forms in Mediterranean societies and an enquiry concerning how these could connect with a sufficiency perspective.

The state-of-the-art: a synthesized review

In order to justify that research determined by the concepts and objectives summarized above can represent concrete progress beyond the state-of-the-art, a summary of current knowledge relevant to the scope of the project's objective follows. And, following this summary, at the end of this section, we return to the developments in knowledge that will be drawn from this project.

The causes that have given rise to the debate about a post-carbon society are known and can be expressed in one simple phrase: the signs that the pressures exercised by human societies on the ecosystems are excessive, that human societies are entering (or about to enter) a position of overshoot are all too abundant. It is agreed that ignoring them is not an option. In particular, the role that the latest reports from the IPCC play is very relevant. Climatic change is recognised as a consequence of human action, and it is also recognised that the impacts of this change can well be very much more dramatic than previously believed. This has led to envision a substantial reduction of fossil fuels, which would be the main characteristic of a 'post-carbon' society. Preoccupation with global warming is not the only cause for concern. More than three decades ago, for example, the first report to the Club of Rome on limits to growth predicted that if existing trends in population and capital growth, use of resources, increase in contamination and degradation of ecosystems continued without any substantial changes, the result would be a situation of overshoot in the second decade of the twenty-first century and, eventually, a collapse of industrial society. The updated review of the report thirty years later has emphasized that humanity is already in a position of overshoot. And, as a consequence, it is harder to avoid collapse and moreover, its effects are more difficult to counteract because a new equilibrium would demand a prolonged adjustment phase of lowering material requirements of human societies. The latest issues of the Living Planet Report (WWF) highlight that the world's ecological footprint is more than 40% above a sustainable level. The analysis of the ecological footprint indicates that the weight of humanity required more or less half of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere in 1961, which has been over this capacity since the 1980s, and now is inevitably consuming it, by depleting Earth's biocapacity year after year. One widespread opinion is that the end of the age of cheap oil is in sight. The consumption of oil is four-times faster than its discovery, the gap between a growing demand and the addition to the declining reserves continues to increase and the situation is becoming critical. It is now clear enough that the rate at which oil producers in the world can extract it has reached or it is near to reach the highest possible maximum level. The expression "peak oil" refers to this. At great effort and expense, similar levels of production to the present ones could be maintained for a few more years, but after this an irreversible decline will begin. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) has concluded that two-thirds of the natural resources are deteriorating in the world. Of note: it is not that they are threatened by future deterioration, nor that they could deteriorate, but that they already have. This report presents this as something that is confirmed: that the capacity of the planet to supply services is decreasing; that in the following decades the situation could worsen, and that the measures adopted to date have been neither adequate nor sufficient. To complete the description it is necessary to refer to the relationship between population, food production and the provision of fresh water which has begun to move between extremely narrow margins. And, of course, to some other issues such as the enormous levels of risk associated with nuclear proliferation or the uncertain effects in the long term of the chemical soup in which all organisms populating the Earth are bathing.

There are two traits which are predominant in the mountains of information accumulated over the past years concerning the ecological crisis. One of them is related to refinement and the precision of data. There is clearly a qualitative jump in this aspect, often accompanied by a moderate argumentation, not wishing to set on alarms prior to presenting facts and reasons. The other is the perceptible change in the tone: more and more there is less talk about future threats and more and more about our present situation: the future has arrived, the wolf that never came has now entered the pen. It is hard to see all that without the appropriate tools and without the adequate information about where to focus our gaze, but the issue can no longer be eluded.

Research concerning social responses to the situation described by the aforementioned sources, and many other similar ones, has been directed to, in the first instance, technological changes: the substitution of fossil fuels for other sources of energy and the increase of eco-efficiency in the processes of production and consumption as a whole. Much effort has also been given to the economic policies responses: eco-taxes, incentives to save energy or for the replacement of fossil fuels with alternative energies, market reforms, etc. Less attention has been paid, nevertheless, to investigating socio-cultural responses, as well as the conditions that the present day ways of life impose. We will deal with these aspects of the question in greater detail, because it is the focus of our approach in this project.

In beginning with an approach that incorporates visions of social change on a macro-scale, it must be highlighted that the perception that we have entered the transitory phase of overshoot has become a central issue in the literature - growing in terms of quantity and impact - that raises a real possibility of collapse of industrial society in the very near future, and in the same vein reviews the fate succumbed to by different societies in the past. The debate about the scope and eventual social effects of the decline is present and intense. This debate is creating potential divisions arising from significant disagreements over a few key points. The primary one being between those who associate the end of the carbon era with the catastrophic collapse of civilization (the die-off, the swift return to the Olduvai gorge, to the prehistoric origins of mankind) and those who associate it with a continued well-being (by defending the notion of a more or less "prosperous way down"). The conviction that the ascending historical cycle of the use of fossil fuels is nearing its end, jointly to the skepticism about an adequate supply of cheap alternative energy resources, underlies the belief that the collapse of society and humankind on earth is only a few years away. The supporters of this view believe that collapse will mark the end of civilization and not merely a return to a previously inferior state. Should there be survivors they will not be capable of maintaining the complex array of cultural traits that characterize modern societies. On the other hand, the assumption of the freedom of humanity, and a vision about the course of history as determined by conscious collective choices, underlies the idea that the end of the era of carbon is an opportunity to organize society to adapt to these changes at a sustainable level; an opportunity to change direction towards the small, the slow and localized; a transition from competition to cooperation and from unlimited growth to self-limitation.

Another important approach focuses on the governance of complexity, emphasizing social processes of adaptation under conditions of uncertainty. The concept of governance refers to actions as a whole, not only of governments, but also of the different institutions, organisations and social networks, that permit the maintenance of structural stability without changes giving a free rein to chaotic behaviour. When placing it in relation to the notion of complexity, it is suggested that it is possible to consciously control complex adaptive systems, such as human societies and, above all, those systems formed by societies and their environment, or socio-ecological systems. Research into issues of sustainability from this point of view is starting to refer to criteria of adaptive flexibility, often defined by ecological analogies (resilience, co-evolution) or through technological analogies (robustness). Given the elevated level of uncertainty that is inherent in the visions of a post-carbon society, this type of approach appears to be promising.

It is also necessary to refer to the connection between the idea of a post-carbon society and the very diverse approaches concerning alternative development and post-development. The proposals and initiatives that have arisen in this context are conceived at times as being in themselves alternatives to development and at times as alternatives paths to development; sometimes adopting languages of sustainable development whilst at other times rejecting it. Nearly all of these propositions and initiatives have certain characteristics in common. In the first place, the emphasis is placed on the local-regional scale as being the most adequate, for expressing resistance to development-globalisation as well as for specifying alternatives. There is also a claim for autonomy with regard to both market and the State, this autonomy being based sometimes on association, sometimes on community. In the third place, the insistence on cultural diversity (as the origin of knowledge based on experience and "adapted to a concrete case", as a base for rejecting any model that tries to be universally applicable, and as a source that offers a plurality of spaces for a multitude of initiatives and experiments).

And, finally, the interest for ways of life that are predominantly low-carbon. The existing literature concerning the ideas of sufficiency, sobriety or self-limitation is also an important reference for this project. The reference to the vision of a 'post-carbon' society implies in one way or another, a critical perspective on the 'Western' assumption of steady economic growth of capitalist societies. Starting from this point, the discourse about "de-growth" in France or Spain ties in with a broad discussion in Germany about the idea of sustainable development, often couched more or less directly in terms of a contrast to the current fossil energy regime. All these debates can be characterized by a constructive critique of the environmentally harmful processes linked to the rising consumption of energy, material resources and the unsustainable consumption patterns involved and the basic idea of alternative modes of production and consumption. The ideas and local experiences in this context, whether they have been thought of in an explicitly post-carbon perspective or not, offer many elements that can be incorporated into the research process.

Creative communities can be considered as promising cases of social innovation in everyday life that illustrate the real possibility of reorienting the evolution of present society in the direction towards more sustainable consumption patterns. On a European scale, the Sustainable Everyday Project (SEP, http://www.sustainable-everyday.net/cases) offers an overview on creative communities engaged in social innovation and the conversation on possible sustainable futures. Some other projects have investigated the emergence of creative communities in Europe and world wide.

We also refer to the literature concerning everyday ecology and consumption. There is a huge corpus of work on consumption. There are also many studies about different aspects of the relationship between household consumption and ecology. But it still lacks a consolidated framework incorporating the ecological dimension of consumer behaviour. Everyday life ecology tries to overcome these shortfalls by making the basic assumption that everyday activities can be described as practices. A 'practice' has been defined as a routinized type of behaviour which consists of several interconnected elements. Social practices are more or less institutionalised collective phenomena that are produced through everyday action and are governed by habits and routines rather than by deliberate and rational choice. Most practices require and entail consumption and have, of course, much to do with the way individuals organize their daily lives. Everyday life embraces a broad variety of diverse activities, such as cooking, shopping, caring work, etc. These activities do not happen in isolation but rather they form a more or less coherent whole. However, focusing on everyday practices does not imply a complete 'voluntaristic' view or a theoretical concept of consumption as being a matter of 'personal choice', but rather stresses the dependency of consumption patterns on systems of provision. Regarding the environmental impact of consumer behaviour, agro-food, transport and housing are fields of action which account for substantial shares of direct and indirect energy use and related CO2-emissions. In several EU countries, the production-consumption chain of actitivies related to housing, food and mobility cause about 70% of the total global warming potential. The social-ecological approach to sustainable consumption provides a fruitful and multidimensional framework for the study of sustainable consumption, linking consumption and environmental research.

Finally, in the field of the social sciences, and more especially in that of sociological economics, there is ample literature that considers economic actions to be socially embedded. Thus, production and consumption reflect the conditions derived from the networks of relationships where they take place, and they also reflect cultural capital. In this sense, production, consumption and forms of access to resources must be considered to be "territorialized" acts which are influenced by factors such as cultural capital, the institutional context, the peculiarities of the markets, the values and attitudes that influence demand, territorial environmental traits, the modalities for accessing resources (technological, energetic, cognitive) and the manner in which the state apparatus intervenes. For this project, the ways in which such social factors, in the different geographic contexts, help or hinder innovations that aim for the substitution of or to a reduction in the use of fossil energies are significant.

Beyond the state-of-the-art

Once the state-of-the-art has been summarized, we return to the contributions that this project can offer to go beyond this.

Existing case studies concerning experiments with ways of life oriented to sustainability have not always taken into account the specific perspective of a substantial reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases nor have they been connected to a vision of a post-carbon era. On the other hand, long-term visions of social change "beyond carbon" have often been detached from the comprehensive knowledge of the existing experiences, being principally hypothetical and speculative. The realization of a series of case studies concretely set in this context could bring important new empirical information to connect the catalysers of change existing in civil society to the philosophical views and/or programmes of a post-carbon era.

On the other hand, there is little information about the congruency between existing social experiments on ways of low-carbon life with the perceptions and predispositions of the general public in this respect. The production of data obtained from representative samples from the population as a whole would help to detect bridges and points of connection between active groups and society in general.

We find the integration in one research project of (a) empirical case studies concerning the initiatives of civil society, (b) the compilation of descriptive data about the attitudes of the general population, (c)the production of data about the relationship between carbon footprints and social-economic position; and (d) the formulation of scenes and visions concerning social change in a post-carbon era to be especially promising. There are many descriptive studies of concrete experiences that do not take into consideration the connection to perspectives of long-term social changes. There is also much compiled information about opinions and attitudes concerning the environment which is not contextualized within a framework of substantial reduction in the use of fossil fuels. There are lots of data about footprints of whole societies or cities, but very few about their social distribution and the redistributive impacts of modifying them. There are some formulations about future contexts of "beyond oil" or "beyond growth", but these are characteristically disconnected from the studies concerning existing social practices. The development of a research programme which integrates these four lines of research and specifically explores the interactions between them is, from our point of view, the principal contribution that the project proposed here could make towards an advance in knowledge.

Objectives

The main reason to engage in this project has been the widely shared conviction that the transition to a 'post-carbon' society becomes unavoidable. This belief is, above all, a consequence of the growing scientific evidence concerning anthropogenic climate change (the artificial intensification of the greenhouse effect) as well as the political recognition that the economic and social costs, if said change is not controlled in time, could become unbearable. This idea can also be linked to other evidence indicating that the physical scale of humanity has already surpassed the levels that the planet can sustain.

Given this starting point, our initial hypothesis is that the transition to a 'post-carbon' society cannot be achieved by an increase in energy efficiency alone or only by changing government policies, but also requires far-reaching transformation in lifestyles, consumption patterns, and forms of urbanization, along with other features of social organization. This emphasis in the sociological contents of the issue suggests the general objective of proposing pathways to post-carbon societies which are to some extent specific of each society, coming from specific socio-cultural perspectives. In order to achieve this objective the hypothesis that there are potentials in southern-European societies for a sufficiency culture and for a society that will substantially reduce the use of fossil fuels will be examined. New insights will thus be obtained. Against this background we expect to identify socio-cultural toeholds (crystallization points) as well as to develop, together with agents from politics and civil society, possible pathways to utilize these cultural potentials.

More concretely, the aim of the project is to produce new and meaningful information along the following lines:

1. The description and analysis of social experiences, collective actions, intellectual and social movements and citizens' initiatives that constitute the catalysts in civil society for lines of social change specifically oriented to the perspective of a post-carbon society. (Even though there are many case studies that have been carried out concerning environmental concerns, these are still rather limited in respect of cases specifically related to the perspective of sufficiency, de-growth, de-carbonisation, etc.).

2. The connection between the catalysts of a post-carbon era which exist in civil society with the perceptions and predisposition of the general public. (As in the former point, if data about the perceptions and attitudes in respect of the environment are numerous, those which are relative, in particular, to the options and alternatives of a post-carbon era are still extremely limited).

3. The connection between direct and indirect consumption of fossil fuels and other resources (measured by carbon and ecological footprints) and the different positions in the social structure of modern advanced societies. (Again in this point: there are enough data about environmental impacts of whole societies and populations, and mountains of data about social stratification and other dimensions of the social structure, but an analysis of the relationship between the two perspectives does not exist in any industrial society).

4. The connection between the issue of transition to a post-carbon society in the twenty-first century and the ways in which the development of non-thermal technologies, based on elements other than heat, was impeded throughout the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th when so-called alternative technologies were slowly given up. To bring these back requires not only an extraordinary creative effort in terms of research but also necessitates new forms of collective life, new attitudes in terms of consumption and new structures in regard to social conflict.

5. Visions of the future framed by the condition of possibility defined in the former points, that is to say, congruent with current socio-cultural traits.

6. The Mediterranean specificity in this matter, as far as it could exist, being relative to particular social initiatives as well as more diffuse social visions. (The dissemination of the idea of a post-carbon society as well as the social debate around this idea can be found in these societies still in an incipient phase).

Methodology and working plan

The methodological concept of this project consists of an unusual yet appropriate (regarding the characteristics of the issue with which we are faced) combination of empirical case studies, statistical surveys and prospective foresights. The idea is to combine the analysis of practical experiences which currently exist (mainly in local environments) with the reporting of the perceptions and predispositions of the general public and with the elaboration of foresights or possible visions of the future. The aim is to interconnect these three different levels so that each one is enriched through interaction with the others. Thus, practical experiences are seen not only as phenomena to be described in the present but as the catalyser to a possible future; their degree of feasibility as examples of a possible future will be judged in terms of the congruency or compatibility with the points of view which are more socially extended; and their meaning is interpreted in conceptual frameworks constituted by possible futures in a society that has substantially reduced its use of fossil fuels.

Quantitative analysis will be used to classify different lifestyles and modes of consumption in order to estimate their environmental impact in terms of both ecological and carbon footprints and in order to relate the different levels of environmental impact with specific patterns of a predisposition towards change.

The foresight analysis is conditioned by particular cultural frameworks for each geographic context and by the possibilities indicated through the existing practical experiences and the attitudes reported in the population as a whole.

Even though each of the three parts could be done independently following methodologies which are solidly established in the social sciences, the combination of them all in a single framework constitutes a significant effort requiring special dedication in the development of the project.

The research techniques to be used will be adapted to each one of the three aforementioned dimensions. For the case studies, documentary analysis, open-ended in-depth interviews, participant observation, sociological intervention and other appropriate techniques will be used to achieve this end. In the quantitative part, secondary sources will be analysed and statistical surveys will be used. The prospective concerning the lines of social change in a 'post-carbon' society will be carried out using primarily the method of scenarios and participative foresight. During the development of the project there will be processes of permanent comparison between the participating sub-teams.

The work plan to be followed will consist of the following phases and tasks:

In Phase I a wide literature review of existing and relevant works about a possible "post-carbon" society will be carried out, including the debates about alternative energies, de-growth, culture of sufficiency, etc. Information will be collected concerning movements, associations, and groups which are significant, for their contribution to communicating ideas or theses or to the publication of journals as well as for their practical actions, when oriented towards protest or as a proposition or positive experiment. A socio-anthropological review will also be carried out concerning the opinion studies about the issue of alternative development with non-thermal technologies, as well as already experienced alternative techniques and their relation to the environment. The work in this phase will be characterized by extensive desk research involving both a review of the relevant existing literature and discourse analysis. The main task will be to identify the basic lines of argument, central societal actors and relevant 'alternative' initiatives in general and in particular in the fields of energy, housing and agro-food. A second thread of investigation during Phase I will be a long-term evaluation of national and international studies about ecological awareness, values and orientations in general and in particular regarding urbanization, housing, nutrition, energy use and climate change. Rather than summarizing the results, we want to reflect on the nature of relevant factors enhancing (or hampering) long term behavioural changes: what promotes and hampers the implementation of sustainable consumption patterns? Insofar as this is a crucial question, these changes provide windows of opportunities for social innovations and the transformation of consumer practices.

Phase II will concentrate most of the fieldwork. On the one hand, selected case studies in France and Spain, mainly in the metropolitan regions of Valencia, Barcelona, and Paris. With respect to the case studies, the basic methodological idea is that such initiatives can be considered as so-called real-world experiments. The concept of real-world experiments is a framework for understanding environmental design projects under real-world conditions, that is to say society itself becomes a laboratory for innovative practices. Contrary to laboratory experiments that are generally thought to exclude the public, real-world experiments involve combinations of social and natural factors. By choosing different fields of action (technologies, energy, consumption, housing, etc.) the insight taken into account will be that energy demand and use differ in distinct social environments, and, as a consequence, action strategies towards a 'post-carbon' society have to be designed differently. Whereas, for example, in the housing sector the reduction of CO2 emissions can be promoted by technical solutions in conjunction with their social acceptance, diets are shaped first of all by socio-cultural customs and, as a result, are linked, at least, more indirectly to technological innovations than the housing sector.

Qualitative research techniques will be used to carry out the case studies. The application of these techniques will be based on the different prior experience and capacities in the research team, with the aim of answering the following questions: What were the enabling factors for the initiative? Which social groups were involved in the initiatives? Which policy actors participated? Which innovations can be identified concerning the three dimensions of everyday life organisation, market settings and civil society?

A further objective is to compile existing quantitative data, and will produce new data where they were non-existent or insufficient, about values, opinions, predispositions and behaviours of the whole population in issues relevant to the transition to a post-carbon society. In particular, about lifestyles concerning diet, mobility, housing, the production of waste and (if possible) the ecological impact from individual consumers and attitudes towards changes needed from the perspective of a post-carbon society. One thread of research in this phase will be a long-term evaluation of national and international studies about ecological awareness, values and approaches towards diet, transport, housing, energy use and climate change. A second thread of quantitative investigation will be studies (already existing) about the ecological footprints of the food, housing, transport and energy sectors, based on statistical data and available investigations.

The examination of the existing secondary sources will be complemented through the carrying out of a survey (survey on lifestyles, consumption, ecological footprint, carbon footprint, and attitudes towards change) of a representative sample of the adult population covered by the project. If possible, there will be shown connections between the attitudes identified towards the change in habits of consumption, lifestyles and energy use and the levels of impact.

The results obtained in the second phase will be the material for a third phase of debate, amongst members of the team as well as external assessors and experts, and for a process of unifying views. Following this, a fourth phase will be developed dedicated to exploit the formerly obtained results in order to develop possible 'Visions of the Future' referring to the question of the adaptability of societies to the overall objective of a 'post-carbon' society. Thus, sustainability is considered to be a process rather than an end-product, a dynamic process that requires forms of adaptive capacity to deal with the change. A fifth phase will focus on refining the results from the previous phases through internal discussion in the research team, public communications, and debates at conferences and scientific meetings.

(Firstly drafted in November 2007, revised in December 2010)

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